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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But the current race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. In an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still